Sunbeam — North Bay Village Economic Assessment

Overview

Making the economic case for an iconic waterfront district

Sunbeam envisioned a new landmark destination for North Bay Village — a mixed-use project of 1,936 luxury apartments, a 300-room upscale hotel, Class A office, and restaurants, entertainment, and retail across three sites on both sides of the John F. Kennedy Causeway, wrapped around a marina, a production studio, civic open space, and a public island walk.

BusinessFlare® was engaged through the Euclid Group to prepare an independent Economic & Fiscal Impact Report supporting the project's Special Area Plan. We assessed the Village's real estate, labor, capital, and consumer markets, then quantified the one-time and recurring benefits and the property-tax revenue the development would return to the Village and other taxing authorities.

The headline

The up-to-$1.7 billion project is projected to generate $2.9 billion in one-time economic impact and support 17,384 jobs during construction, then deliver $332 million in recurring annual economic output and 4,190 permanent jobs. At a stabilized taxable value approaching $1 billion, it would add an estimated $5.7 million to the Village's General Fund — roughly a 48% increase — plus about $12 million in one-time permits and fees.

7.3M SFtotal mixed-use program across three sites

17,384jobs supported during construction

4,190recurring annual jobs at full operation

~$1Bestimated stabilized taxable value

Visuals

The market study areas

The North Bay Village site and the benchmarked market geographies along Biscayne Bay — a 2.5-mile radius, Bay Harbor Islands, and Miami Beach. BusinessFlare®.

The work

Explore the analysis

From the development program and market fundamentals to the jobs, output, and tax revenue the project returns to North Bay Village.

The Special Area Plan program totals roughly 7.3 million gross square feet on a 562,454-SF assemblage, blending residential, hospitality, office, retail, and civic uses with about 5,000 structured parking spaces.

Program

1,936 residential units (avg. 1,400 SF), including 97 workforce-housing units
300-key upscale hotel plus a marina and small production studio
570,000 SF Class A office and 550,000 SF of commercial/retail
30,000 SF civic space, public open space, and a waterfront island walk

Benchmarked against Miami Beach, Bay Harbor Islands, a 2.5-mile radius, and Miami-Dade, North Bay Village showed tight vacancy, market-leading rents, and sub-5% cap rates signaling strong investor confidence — but almost no room to grow.

Findings

NBV is the rent leader for 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units among peer submarkets
Multifamily cap rates in the 4% range — very strong investor confidence
Only ~155,000 SF of office and ~88,000 SF of retail — a boutique, supply-starved market
Retail vacancy effectively 0% in the Village, leaving no space for new businesses

Placer.ai foot-traffic and consumer-spending data confirmed that the Village's residential purchasing power is leaking out for lack of local shops and restaurants — demand the project is designed to recapture.

Findings

Of the average household's ~$34,500 retail-and-dining budget, ~$23,300 is spent outside the Village
Average annual household retail spending of $30,959 and restaurant spending of $3,520
New residents and visitors projected to spend $70M+ annually in the local economy
Recurring resident and overnight-visitor spending exceeds $71M per year

Using the Emsi input-output model, BusinessFlare® quantified employment, earnings, and total output for both the construction phase and stabilized operations, tracing direct spending through indirect and induced ripple effects.

Findings

$2.96B total one-time output during construction, incl. $1.14B in household earnings
17,384 jobs supported during the construction phase
$332M recurring annual output once the project is operating
4,190 permanent jobs supported by ongoing operations

We modeled ad valorem taxes using both a construction-cost and an income approach to valuation, projecting revenue to the Village, School Board, County, and other authorities over a ten-year horizon.

Findings

Stabilized taxable value approaching $1 billion, growing year over year
~$5.7M/year to the Village General Fund — roughly a 48% increase
Equivalent to a ~14% increase to the Village's total $39.4M FY2021/22 budget
Approximately $12M in one-time permits and fees

The assessment ties the project's scale directly to the Village's constraints: strong economic fundamentals held back by limited real estate. The added density and height are what allow the project to recapture leaking spending, house workers locally, and materially expand the tax base.

The argument

Limited real estate availability is capping the Village's economic opportunity
New commercial and residential space serves unmet local and regional demand
Workforce housing puts job opportunities near residents' homes
A single project can deliver a ~48% General Fund increase — impossible without added density

By the numbers

Key points

A proposed 7.3M-SF mixed-use destination across three sites on the JFK Causeway: 1,936 apartments, a 300-key hotel, Class A office, retail, marina, and public island walk
$2.9 billion in one-time economic impact and 17,384 jobs supported during construction
$332 million in recurring annual economic output and 4,190 permanent jobs once operational
Stabilized taxable value approaching $1 billion, reassessed and growing over time
~$5.7 million in new annual revenue to the Village General Fund — roughly a 48% increase — plus ~$12 million in one-time permits and fees
Market analysis across five geographies showed tight vacancy, market-leading rents, and sub-5% cap rates — strong demand with almost no supply
Placer.ai data documented heavy retail/dining leakage: ~$23,300 of the average household's ~$34,500 budget is spent outside the Village
Impacts modeled with the Emsi input-output methodology, calibrated to North Bay Village; 97 units reserved as workforce housing